The Shift from Rules-Based Order to "Great Power Rivalry" #
- Carney argues that the "rules-based international order" is currently a "pleasant fiction" that has undergone a total rupture rather than a simple transition.
- He describes a "harsh reality" where great powers use economic integration, tariffs, and supply chains as weapons of coercion.
- The "bargain" of middle powers participating in international rituals to buy safety is no longer functional.
The Power of the Powerless and "Living within a Truth" #
- Drawing on Václav Havel’s essay, Carney uses the "green grocer" metaphor to illustrate how systems persist through performed compliance.
- He calls for countries and companies to "take the sign down"—to stop pretending the old order is functional and start naming reality.
- "Living the truth" involves acting consistently, applying the same standards to both allies and rivals, and reducing vulnerability to retaliation.
Canada’s Strategic Shift: Value-Based Realism #
- Carney introduces "value-based realism"—being principled regarding territorial integrity and human rights while being pragmatic about divergent interests.
- Canada is moving away from the assumption that geography and alliances automatically guarantee security.
- The strategy involves "variable geometry": forming different coalitions of the willing for different issues (e.g., Ukraine, Arctic sovereignty, AI).
Strategic Autonomy and Economic Strength #
- Carney highlights the need for nations to fuel, feed, and defend themselves to avoid subordination.
- He details domestic actions taken by his government: cutting taxes on capital gains and investment, removing interprovincial trade barriers, and doubling defense spending.
- Canada is fast-tracking $1 trillion in investments across energy, AI, and critical minerals.
Diversification and International Partnerships #
- Carney emphasizes that middle powers must combine forces to avoid being "on the menu" of great powers.
- He defends Canada's new strategic partnerships with China and Qatar, arguing that "calibration" with guard rails is necessary for resilience.
- He highlights a "bridge" between the Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the EU to create a trading block of 1.5 billion people.
Arctic Sovereignty and the Greenland Dispute #
- Canada remains "four square" behind Greenland and Denmark’s right to determine their own future.
- Carney identifies Russia as a definitive threat in the Arctic, necessitating Canada’s investment in over-the-horizon radar, submarines, and "boots on the ice."
- He opposes tariffs over Greenland and calls for security-focused dialogue.
The "Board of Peace" and Global Conflicts #
- Canada has been invited to the "Board of Peace" proposed by President Trump; Carney expresses interest but stresses the need for proper structure and humanitarian aid flow.
- He suggests the vehicle is most immediately applicable to the situation in Gaza to pursue a two-state solution.
Redefining Globalism #
- Responding to criticisms of "globalism," Carney distinguishes between being "detached" and being "connected."
- He suggests that while "global" cooperation may not cover the entire world anymore, a "web of connections" among like-minded nations will be more powerful than individual "fortresses."
Summary #
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s address at Davos 2026 marks a departure from traditional multilateralism, advocating for "value-based realism" in an era of great power competition. He argues that the old rules-based order has collapsed into a system of economic coercion, requiring middle powers like Canada to aggressively seek strategic autonomy and diversify partnerships. By strengthening domestic industry and forming issue-specific coalitions, Carney believes nations can move beyond "performing sovereignty" to actually wielding it, creating a new, more honest international framework that acknowledges the world as it is rather than how it was once imagined.
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