War in Ukraine: A Current Overview
The Donbas Region
- The Donbas, encompassing the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, remains the most intense area of conflict since 2014.
- Regional capitals are occupied by Russians, who are struggling to fully occupy the region.
- Major battles have occurred in Donbas, including in Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Pokrovsk.
- Bakhmut was a key logistical hub in the northeastern Donetsk Oblast.
- Avdiivka and Kurakhove also held significant operational importance at various times.
- Pokrovsk served as the main logistical hub for Ukrainian forces west of occupied Donetsk until it was outflanked, losing its operational significance.
- Kostiantynivka, crucial for connecting defenses and transferring forces in the Donetsk Oblast, is also being outflanked and losing importance.
- The protracted and severe nature of the battles in these cities stems from their strategic and symbolic importance.
- In Bachmut, early "meat assaults" involved large numbers of soldiers, including convicts.
- Current attacks involve smaller groups of several to a dozen soldiers, operating as independent squads, often on motorcycles or ATVs, without direct armored support.
- The widespread use of drones, particularly FPV (First Person View) drones, dictates modern combat, resembling a more mobile version of WWI trench warfare.
- Drones are responsible for an estimated 75-80% of casualties on both sides.
- Electronic warfare (EW) is crucial, neutralizing over 70% of drone attacks.
- Both sides are developing countermeasures: Ukraine uses AI to guide drones in the final meters, while Russia employs fiber-optic cable-controlled drones to avoid electronic jamming, though these have significant range limitations.
- Modern German military equipment, including Leopard tanks and Panzerhaubitze 2000 howitzers, proved ill-suited for full-scale war, designed for stabilization operations rather than continuous combat.
Regions Bordering Russia and Northern Ukraine
- Kharkiv Oblast: Kharkov, Ukraine's second-largest city, functions as a major logistical hub for various front sectors, including the northern Donetsk Oblast.
- Logistical routes from Kharkiv to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk are crucial for troop and supply movement.
- Both the Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts were initially occupied by Russia, who later withdrew in 2022.
- Ukrainian limited shelling of Russian military installations led to renewed Russian incursions into border areas of Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts.
- Kursk Operation (August 2024): Ukrainian forces launched a largely successful, unprecedented attack into Russia's Kursk Oblast, advancing dozens of kilometers and seizing over 1,000 sq km of territory, including Sudzha (important for a gas pipeline).
- The surprise attack, kept secret from both Russians and Western partners, helped create a buffer zone protecting Sumy from artillery and drone attacks.
- The operation aimed to disrupt a planned Russian counter-offensive towards Sumy, though the Ukrainian offensive eventually faltered due to drone warfare.
- Chernihiv Oblast: Despite bombings, there is no active front line here. Neither side sees a strategic need for military action, though Russian reconnaissance groups are periodically active.
- Russian withdrawal from northern Ukraine in 2022 stabilized this area, and no major engagements have occurred since.
Southern and Southwestern Ukraine
- Mariupol (Donetsk Oblast): Fell to Russian forces early in the war after a brutal siege and heroic defense of the Azovstal steelworks. Ukrainian forces were unable to organize a counter-offensive to relieve the city.
- Zaporizhzhia Oblast: The city of Zaporizhzhia, not fully captured by Russians, lies several dozen kilometers from the front.
- It is sporadically attacked by rockets and drones but primarily serves as a vital repair and maintenance hub for Ukrainian military equipment, utilizing pre-existing large industrial facilities.
- Russian attacks on these facilities are often targeted and require significant resources due to their robust construction.
- Kherson Oblast: Kherson city was occupied by Russia in March 2022 and liberated by Ukraine in late 2022.
- During occupation, residents faced significant terror, including torture centers.
- Kherson remains on the front line, under constant threat of Russian sabotage groups.
- Recent Russian aerial bombardments have isolated Korabel Island from the rest of the city, aiming to depopulate the area, causing a humanitarian crisis. Kyiv has ordered evacuations.
- Approx. 30,000 Russian troops are positioned east of the Dnipro River, stabilizing the front line in this sector.
- Ukrainian counter-offensives in 2023, notably around Krynky, attempted to establish a bridgehead across the Dnipro but failed, preventing a land corridor to Crimea from being cut.
- Crimean Peninsula: Occupied by Russia since 2014, Crimea holds both symbolic and military significance.
- Russia has developed alternative land supply routes (railways and roads) bypassing the peninsula, reducing the strategic importance of the Crimean Bridge for military logistics.
- Crimea remains important for Russia's Black Sea operations and its network of airfields, though most air operations are conducted from other Russian border regions.
Behind the Front Lines
- Poltava Oblast: Myrrhgorod, a key Ukrainian military airfield, has been repeatedly attacked and heavily damaged. Most Ukrainian air operations now originate from western Ukraine.
- Ukrainian air force, including Western-supplied aircraft, primarily focuses on defending against Russian cruise missiles and drones, similar to the British defense against V1/V2 rockets in WWII.
- Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Industrial cities of Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, and other logistical hubs are systematically attacked by Russia.
- These areas, with their industrial plants and railway junctions, are critical for Ukrainian logistics and energy supply, constantly repaired after attacks.
- Odesa, Lviv, and Volyn Oblasts: These western regions, bordering Poland, Romania, and Moldova, house repair facilities and defense industries crucial for the front.
- Russian attacks target these facilities and energy infrastructure, though Ukraine has decentralized energy supply and uses generators to mitigate damage.
- Attacks on facilities like the Flex plant in Mukachevo, which produced electronic components for drones, demonstrate Russia's targeting of Western-affiliated infrastructure.
- Jaworów training ground near Lviv, a key Ukrainian military training center and formerly used by Polish forces, has also been targeted by Russian precision strikes.
- Russian attacks often disregard proximity to NATO borders, as evidenced by drone incidents in Romania.
- Kyiv: The capital remains a target, with attacks focused on defense factories (e.g., Luzh, Antonov), Zhuliany airport, and Patriot air defense system locations.
- While military targets are primary, civilian casualties from stray projectiles are a constant threat.
Summary The war in Ukraine is characterized by intense fighting in the Donbas, a shift towards drone-centric combat, and the crucial role of electronic warfare. While Russia faces challenges occupying Donbas, Ukraine has shown offensive capabilities, notably in the Kursk operation, aiming to create buffer zones. Southern Ukraine's Kherson remains a volatile area, and Crimea's logistical importance has changed due to new Russian routes. Behind the front lines, Ukrainian industrial and logistical hubs, including Kyiv, are under constant attack, forcing Ukraine to adapt with decentralized energy and reliance on Western military aid, particularly for air defense. Despite the devastating impact of the conflict, both sides continually adapt their tactics, with the war increasingly defined by technological advancements in drone and anti-drone warfare.
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