Rosyjskie drony nad Polsk. Co

Russian Drone Incursion into Polish Airspace and Kremlin Objectives

• Details of the Incursion:

  • Post-midnight Moscow time, Russia launched a significant aerial attack on Ukraine, involving approximately 500 various unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and a substantial number of cruise and ballistic missiles.
  • A large group of UAVs entered from the Russian-Ukrainian-Belarusian border, northeast of Chernihiv, proceeding along the northern Ukrainian-Belarusian border towards the Lviv Oblast.
  • While many UAVs were intercepted or reached their Ukrainian targets, about a dozen crossed the Polish-Ukrainian border.
  • These drones were headed roughly towards Lublin, though some detached and flew south and north of the Polish-Belarusian border.

• Allied Response and Procedures:

  • Upon detection of Russian strategic attack preparations by NATO reconnaissance systems, Polish and allied air forces were scrambled to protect the eastern flank of NATO, not just the Polish-Belarusian border.
  • Polish F-16 CD block 52+ and Dutch F-35 aircraft, currently stationed in Poland, participated in the operation.
  • Ground and airborne radar systems, including the early warning aircraft recently purchased by Poland from Sweden, were involved in monitoring.
  • Portions of the command structure were likely transferred to the NATO Component Command Air (CAOC) in Udem, Germany, which is responsible for the region. The deputy commander of this international group is Polish.
  • An Italian early warning aircraft operating near Estonia was redirected to Poland.
  • The Dutch air force activated an MRTT tanker aircraft from the Netherlands to refuel other aircraft over Poland, allowing them to remain airborne longer.
  • A decision was made to engage the drones, likely using AIM-9 Sidewinder and AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles from Dutch F-35s and Polish F-16s.

• Kremlin's Objectives and Provocation:

  • The incident represents a provocative escalation by Russia, not for the first time, but unprecedented in its frequency and scale.
  • Russia closely monitors reactions within not only Poland but also other allied nations, as well as the internal political situations in Western countries it deems adversaries.
  • Moscow may have concluded that previous provocations did not elicit a decisive military response but fueled internal political tensions in Poland and other Western countries.
  • The current provocation, likely not accidental, aims to incite anxiety, possibly even panic, within Polish society.
  • It seeks to instigate debate on Poland's stance regarding the war in Ukraine, the cost of political and military involvement, and associated risks.
  • The message conveyed is that continued support for Ukraine, and the failure to end the conflict on Russia's terms (Ukrainian capitulation), escalates risks for Ukraine's neighbors, particularly those on NATO's eastern flank and those providing significant support.
  • The goal is to demonstrate that supporting Ukraine is risky and could lead to involvement in the war, with negative consequences for all of Europe, especially its eastern part, until the conflict concludes on Russian terms.
  • Russia also aims to create discussion and debate within European nations and among allies, particularly within the EU and NATO.
  • A special target is to exploit and deepen potential divisions between a potential Trump administration in the US and leading European states advocating for a more decisive policy towards Russia, increased pressure on Moscow, and greater support for Ukraine.
  • The objective is to foster allied disagreements on how to react to Russian provocations and how to approach the conflict in Ukraine, strengthening voices that advocate for a swift end to the conflict at any cost (on Russian terms) to avoid uncontrolled escalation.

• Russian Interpretation of Reactions and Future Actions:

  • Russia will closely observe reactions, rhetoric, stances, and decisions. If divisions emerge (within Poland, between European countries, or transatlanticly), Russia will escalate its aggressive actions to exacerbate them.
  • Russia will also assess whether decisions lean towards de-escalation rather than strong counter-responses, which would favor a quick freeze of the conflict.
  • If reactions are not sharp or decisive political-military countermeasures are not taken, Russia will continue its path of gradual but clear escalation.
  • Rhetoric and actions indicating a desire for de-escalation, avoidance of conflict, mild reactions, and attempts to appease Russia are interpreted in Moscow as signs of weakness and fear, provoking further aggression.
  • Conversely, Russia underestimates the potential for its actions to backfire, strengthening alliances, solidarity, support for Ukraine, and pressure (including sanctions) on Russia. They do not fully comprehend these mechanisms, believing their strategy of gradual escalation will eventually succeed.
  • The events highlight that Russia views its aggression in Ukraine as part of a broader political strategy beyond just influencing the conflict's outcome or achieving victory.
  • It concerns European security and its architecture, specifically the functioning of NATO.
  • Russia seeks to dismantle the existing security architecture, weaken or destroy NATO, and undermine faith in allied guarantees, particularly Article 5.
  • The aim is to sow defeatism and generate divisions, leading to the fundamental weakening and dismantling of allied structures and the European security architecture.

• Additional Information:

  • The video mentions a related film about the causes of the war in Ukraine and an upcoming special newsletter from Kompas OSW summarizing important world news, including a recent speech by the German Chancellor.